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2012 Belmont Stakes

The 144th running of the Belmont Stake is set for tomorrow and all eyes were going to be on I’ll Have Another as he was going to try to become the first horse to win the triple crown since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.

However, the latest news is that I’ll Have Another will not be racing tomorrow. He has been scratched and there will not be a Triple Crown winner for the 34th consecutive year.

ill-have-another

This is going to put a damper on the excitement that should have been building up for Saturday afternoon. I was in the middle of writing how Bodemeister was not going to be challenging I’ll Have Another, but the tone of this post has changed with the breaking news.

The problem is that it is very difficult for a thoroughbred to race 3 times in 5 weeks. There is just too much strain on the horses. That’s why I’ll Have Another was the only horse in the field that was going to run all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.

Most thoroughbreds will only race every 3rd of 4th week. I’ll make the analogy that it’s almost like asking a MLB starting pitcher to throw 3 games in 7 days. The horses are simply not bred to race all three legs of the Triple Crown.

On top of that, the Belmont Stakes is a 1 1/2 Mile track; that is 1/4 Mile longer than the Kentucky Derby and 1/8 Mile longer than the Preakness. Most thoroughbreds are also not bred to run a track that long.

I’ll Have Another seems to have some minor swelling in a tendon, which caused them to scratch the horse. With some of the injuries on the track in previous Belmont Stakes, the owner and team weren’t going to take the chance that the horse has a catastrophic leg injury.

I’ll Have Another was already going to have a difficult time against well rested horses like Union Rags (the Kentucky Derby favorite) and Dullahan (finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby). Now, the whole dynamics of the Belmont has changed.

Morning Line Odds

Post/Horse Morning Line Odds
1. Street Life 12-1
2. Unstoppable U 30-1
3. Union Rags 6-1
4. Atigun 30-1
5. Dullahan 5-1
6. Ravelo's Boy 50-1
7. Five Sixteen 50-1
8. Guyana Star Dweej 50-1
9. Paynter 8-1
10. Optimizer 20-1
11. I'll Have Another 5-4
12. My Adonis 20-1

Updated Odds

Here are the updated odds now that I’ll Have Another has been scratched from the Belmont.

Post/Horse Current Odds
1. Street Life 8-1
2. Unstoppable U 20-1
3. Union Rags 3-1
4. Atigun 20-1
5. Dullahan 5-2
6. Ravelo's Boy 40-1
7. Five Sixteen 40-1
8. Guyana Star Dweej 40-1
9. Paynter 5-1
10. Optimizer 15-1
11. I'll Have Another Scratched
12. My Adonis 15-1

Because of the late news, I am going to have to go back and redo my predictions. I will update this post as I get more information.

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