2012 Belmont Stakes
The 144th running of the Belmont Stake is set for tomorrow and all eyes were going to be on I’ll Have Another as he was going to try to become the first horse to win the triple crown since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978.
However, the latest news is that I’ll Have Another will not be racing tomorrow. He has been scratched and there will not be a Triple Crown winner for the 34th consecutive year.
This is going to put a damper on the excitement that should have been building up for Saturday afternoon. I was in the middle of writing how Bodemeister was not going to be challenging I’ll Have Another, but the tone of this post has changed with the breaking news.
The problem is that it is very difficult for a thoroughbred to race 3 times in 5 weeks. There is just too much strain on the horses. That’s why I’ll Have Another was the only horse in the field that was going to run all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
Most thoroughbreds will only race every 3rd of 4th week. I’ll make the analogy that it’s almost like asking a MLB starting pitcher to throw 3 games in 7 days. The horses are simply not bred to race all three legs of the Triple Crown.
On top of that, the Belmont Stakes is a 1 1/2 Mile track; that is 1/4 Mile longer than the Kentucky Derby and 1/8 Mile longer than the Preakness. Most thoroughbreds are also not bred to run a track that long.
I’ll Have Another seems to have some minor swelling in a tendon, which caused them to scratch the horse. With some of the injuries on the track in previous Belmont Stakes, the owner and team weren’t going to take the chance that the horse has a catastrophic leg injury.
I’ll Have Another was already going to have a difficult time against well rested horses like Union Rags (the Kentucky Derby favorite) and Dullahan (finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby). Now, the whole dynamics of the Belmont has changed.
Morning Line Odds
| Post/Horse | Morning Line Odds |
| 1. Street Life | 12-1 |
| 2. Unstoppable U | 30-1 |
| 3. Union Rags | 6-1 |
| 4. Atigun | 30-1 |
| 5. Dullahan | 5-1 |
| 6. Ravelo's Boy | 50-1 |
| 7. Five Sixteen | 50-1 |
| 8. Guyana Star Dweej | 50-1 |
| 9. Paynter | 8-1 |
| 10. Optimizer | 20-1 |
| 11. I'll Have Another | 5-4 |
| 12. My Adonis | 20-1 |
Updated Odds
Here are the updated odds now that I’ll Have Another has been scratched from the Belmont.
| Post/Horse | Current Odds |
| 1. Street Life | 8-1 |
| 2. Unstoppable U | 20-1 |
| 3. Union Rags | 3-1 |
| 4. Atigun | 20-1 |
| 5. Dullahan | 5-2 |
| 6. Ravelo's Boy | 40-1 |
| 7. Five Sixteen | 40-1 |
| 8. Guyana Star Dweej | 40-1 |
| 9. Paynter | 5-1 |
| 10. Optimizer | 15-1 |
| 11. I'll Have Another | Scratched |
| 12. My Adonis | 15-1 |
Because of the late news, I am going to have to go back and redo my predictions. I will update this post as I get more information.